EUROLATINA-Nachrichten vom Jahresende 2017 erschienen

Das neues Mitteilungsblatt kann ab sofort heruntergeladen werden! Sie können darin über meinen neuen Partner Holger Sax lesen, der so neu gar nicht ist, weil er schon mein Partner bei AMS - NIPPON RIKA DO BRASIL ist, aber eben, und das ist neu, jetzt auch bei EUROLATINA.

Außerdem finden Sie eine Darstellung der Lage Brasiliens zum Jahresende. Einen ausführlichen Bericht zur Lage werde ich Anfang nächsten Jahres schreiben, wenn die Daten von Brasiliens Volkswirtschaft für 2017 vollständig bekannt sind. Rechnen Sie nicht vor Anfang Februar damit.

2018 wird ein interessantes Jahr werden. Hoffen wir, das der Aufschwung nicht durch die Tatsache gebremst wird, dass es ein Wahljahr ist. Und wünschen wir den brasilianischen Wählern und uns, dass sie schlauer als die deutschen sind und für eindeutige Verhältnisse sorgen.

Schlagzeilen aus "Valor International" vom 20.12.2017

Supreme Court ends the year with unexpected decisions

Rulings deal with forced testimonies, immunity and defenses of Paulo Maluf and Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

Economy will be central issue for presidential elections

Doubt is whether voter will compare recovery of 2018 with recession of the Rousseff years or growth of the Lula period

Cargill finally arrives in North Arch

Agribusiness giant is the latest arrival to new export route, vowing to spend at least R$700m on bulk-grain terminal in the Amazon

Brasília to cut spending again as fiscal measures stall in Congress

14 hours and 3 minutes ago

• Unable to approve the fiscal-adjustment measures in Congress, the economic team studies "alternatives" to offset the lower revenues and higher expenses, which could add at least R$21.4 billion to the deficit. During a breakfast with reporters on Tuesday, Finance Minister Henrique Meirelles avoided talking about tax increases but also did not rule out the possibility. "Let's see," he said. Efforts are aimed at ensuring compliance with the spending ceiling and the primary-deficit target of R$159 billion. Right now, the economic team wants to offset the loss of R$6 billion in revenues due to delay in the approval of the provisional measure (MP) that address the taxation of investment funds. To take effect in 2018, the MP would have to be approved still this year.

  BRF shares suffer amid internal clashes

  Controversial CEO pick and lack of clear strategy push meat producer to lowest price since March, even worse than scandal-plagued rival JBS
  
  

  Government wants to overhaul federal property rules

  Idea is to issue provisional measure cutting red tape for the cession and sale of public areas
  
  

  The BR Distribuidora IPO saga

  One of the biggest symbols of nefarious political meddling in a state-owned company is Petrobras
  
  
  Sergio Lamucci

  The adjustment is only in the beginning

  With big public deficit and gross debt on explosive course, the necessary effort to tackle the problem will have to continue for several years
  
  
  
  
  Murillo Camarotto

  The hurdles to Operation Car Wash’s “re-election”

  Attacked on several fronts, corruption probe now depends on continuing authorization for jailing people convicted by appellate court
  
  

  Airport concessions open up to medium-sized construction firms

  Operators of the latest airports auctioned opt for companies not implicated by Car Wash to carry out their upgrade works
  
  

  BNDES launches new credit tools for infrastructure projects

  Development bank is offering contingent credit lines and joining syndicate of banks to attract private-sector capital
  
  
  
  

  Credit Suisse stimulates independent asset managers in Brazil

  Gauss and Canvas mature their strategies in funds sponsored by the Swiss group
  
  

  Foreigners seek ways to skirt restrictions on rural land ownership

  Purchase of convertible bonds and local partnerships made only to own the land are some options on their menu

  
  

  Correios on track to post another R$2bn loss

  Postal service is struggling with falling revenues and ballooning health care spending, and faces accumulated loss of over R$6bn since 2014

  
  

  Newton de Souza is next in line to head Odebrecht

  Divisive but trusted by controlling family, executive could step in as conglomerate faces challenges recruiting top names amid governance push

  
  

  Nubank founder dismisses macro risks to 2018

  David Vélez sees further growth for its fintech next year despite political uncertainties and fierce competition in banking industry

  
  

  Mato Grosso meatpackers see market opportunity to reopen plants

  Leading beef-producing state in Brazil may increase its capacity by 25% as companies try to take advantage of JBS crisis

  
  

  Consumer rates grow volatile with political turmoil

  Effect typically seen in futures market is now appearing also on cost of loans to individuals

  
  

  Recession drives 5.4m into extreme poverty

  Calculations based on official data show 9m Brazilians surviving on $5.50 a day or less in 2015 and 2016

  
  

  Next president will have to grapple with minimum wage policy

  Some analysts argue new formula, to be set in 2019, should end automatic increases of social-security benefits

  
  

  Fiat Chrysler chief sees “more mature” Brazil driving rebound

  Latin America head Stephan Ketter minimizes election risks and bets on another 10% growth for the auto market next year

  
  

  Andrade Gutierrez plans big debt cuts in 2018

  Engineering group will redeem bonds in order to deleverage and be prepared for recovery in infrastructure

  
  

  Agriculture’s expansion depends on reforms, study says

  Fiesp says Brazilian agribusiness prospects remain positive but there are challenges on the domestic front

  
  

  Cut in reserve requirements could clear R$35bn to lending

  Central Bank has said it plans to review the reserve; reduction would help banks as credit market starts recovering

  
  

  Companies to pack IPOs in beginning of year

  Investment banks have been advising corporations to offer shares before electoral concerns sweep the markets

  
  

  Globo changes command amid digital push

  Trusted executive takes helm from Roberto Irineu Marinho, who will retain chairman role as media conglomerate seeks continuity

  
  

  Uncertainties cloud promising economic prospects for 2018

  Brazil is ending 2017 on positive notes, but everything now will depend on the succession race

  
  

  Chamber speaker plans to vote pension reform on February 19

  Rodrigo Maia says government campaign was not clear enough and negotiates alternative proposal

  
  

  Passing pension reform becomes more expensive in 2018

  Benefits touted by government pitch will count nothing when lawmakers return from recess in February

  
  

  Ultrapar turns to organic growth with biggest-ever investment

  Chemicals and fuel retail conglomerate will spend R$2.7bn next year on its five business units in advance of new expansion cycle

  
  

  Real-estate developers see a brighter 2018

  Capital crunch at biggest mortgage lender could crimp the moderately upbeat outlook fueled by slow economic rebound

  
  

  Social Security reform stalls in Congress

  On Wednesday morning there were 285 "firm" votes in favor of the proposed constitutional amendment, out of the 308 required

  
  

  “I want to be acquitted to be candidate,” Lula says

  PT’s strategy of postponing ruling on the charges against ex-president is compromised by schedule for hearing appeals

Brasilien, ein tropisches Paradies?

Weit gefehlt, muss ich leider schreiben, obwohl es nicht an Palmenstränden und Sonne mangelt. Aber warum sind in einem solchen Paradies 726.000 Menschen in Justizstrafanstalten weggeschlossen? Nur in den USA mit über 2 Mio. Strafgefangenen und China mit mehr als 1,6 Mio. sind es mehr. Aber diese Länder haben auch mehr Einwohner! Das brasilianische Justizministerium veröffentlichte jetzt die Entwicklung seit 1990 (in hunderttausend Strafgefangenen):

Die rasante Zunahme der absoluten Zahlen ist erschrecken. Aber auch die relativen sind alles andere als gut, 2014 verbüßten 299,7 von 100.000 Personen in Brasilien eine Haftstrafe, im Dezember 2015 waren es schon 342. Das Land steht damit an vierter Stelle auf dieser traurigen Liste, die von den USA mit 666, Russland mit 448 und Thailand mit 445 angeführt wird. Mit einer Besserung der Häftlinge nach ihrer Entlassung ist nicht zu rechnen, dazu haben sie in den überfüllten Strafanstalten keine Veranlassung gehabt - im Mittel sind 48 Gefangene auf dem Platz für 10 "untergebracht".

Zu diesen Zahlen passt, dass Brasilien absolut gesehen die meisten gewaltsamen Todesfälle auf unserem Planeten vermelden kann, letztes Jahr waren es 70.200! Das sind 12,5% aller gewaltsamen Todesfälle auf der ganzen Erde gewesen, Kriegsgebiete eingeschlossen. Damit ist Brasilien gefährlicher als Indien, Syrien, Nigeria und Venezuela. Auf unserem schönen blauen Planeten wird jede Minute ein Mensch umgebracht. Pro hunderttausend Einwohner führt Syrien die Liste der Morde an, gefolgt von El Salvador (Der Retter!!!), Venezuela, Honduras und Afghanistan. 2015 waren es ca. 26 Mordopfer por 100.000 Einwohner in Brasilien, im Jahr darauf bereits 30. Der  planetarische Durchschnitt liegt bei 7,5 mit sinkender Tendenz, bei uns ist sie steigend. Als Trost mag uns gereichen, dass 2015 São Paulo trotz seiner Größe nur 8,73 Morde pro hunderttausend Einwohner vermeldet:

Zum Vergleich, die Mordrate in Alagoas lag 2014 bei 61,9 Morden pro hunderttausend Einwohner. Die Sicherheitsindustrie dankt. Und der Gouverneur von São Paulo, Alckmin, kann sich auf die Schulter klopfen. Seine Polizisten natürlich auch.